Word here in Washington State is that R-71 would be approved if the ballot was cast today–but not by a wide margin. Today Joe Mirabella said on his Seattle P-I Reader Blog:

On a call to bloggers a few minutes ago Josh Friedes from the Approve Referendum 71 campaign shared the results of the first poll specifically about referendum 71. The results are a startling contrast to more general polls released by the University of Washington. When voters are read the exact ballot language, 51 percent approve referendum 71 and 44 percent reject referendum 71. The discrepancy may because this new poll looks only at voters likely to cast ballots in the 2009 off year election. As many as half of all voters don’t vote in off year elections, and those who do tend to be more conservative. [Emphasis his.]

This differs from the aforementioned University of Washington poll results, released last year. The Stranger’s Dominic Holden wrote on the Slog today: “Polling released by the University of Washington last October—in a presidential election—shows 66 percent of state voters support either full marriage equality or all the rights of marriage for same-sex couples.” [Emphasis mine.]

I’m probably not telling you anything if you lived through 2008, but getting your side to vote wins elections.

As something of an aside, I wonder how the method of voting will effect voter turnout this year. This November 3rd will be the first non-primary election in Washington that is conducted entirely by mail in all but one county in the state. I will be interested to see how the turnout differs from the last off-year election. I’m picturing myself going door to door with a roll of stamps, urging people to put their darn ballot in the mail. A $44 donation to pay for 100 of my neighbors’ postage would probably be money well spent.

Just call me the postage fairy.

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